您的当前位置:首页 > Exploration > 【tacoma with softopper】Wall Street Week Ahead: Bond investors look for Fed to justify steepening yield curve 正文
时间:2024-09-29 12:27:40 来源:网络整理 编辑:Exploration
By David RandallNEW YORK (Reuters) - Expectations that the global economy has dodged the worst-case tacoma with softopper
By David Randall
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Expectations that the global economy has dodged the worst-case scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic have led to a dramatic selloff in U.S. government bonds from their record highs,tacoma with softopper pushing the yield curve to its steepest level since March.
Investors will get a chance next week to see whether the U.S. Federal Reserve agrees with their optimism. The U.S. central bank is expected to hold a two-day meeting that will conclude Wednesday, the first since a meeting in April in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy could feel the weight of the economic shutdown for more than a year.
While the Fed could introduce additional bond-buying programs known as quantitative easing or yield-curve control measures to target short-term rates, some fund managers say they expect that yields would need to rise significantly from here to justify any intervention in the bulk of the curve. Instead, they are watching for hints that the central bank believes the worst part of the coronavirus crisis has passed.
"They are really in this transition phase," said Eric Stein, co-director of global income and portfolio manager at Eaton Vance. "Markets are functioning, if not all the way back to pre-shock levels, with very strong debt issuance and market improvement, even though the real economy is incredibly weak."
As a result, Stein is looking for signs the Fed believes the economic rebound can support the rise in yields.
"The Fed will be okay with a slow creep higher, particularly with a backdrop of a recovery, but if it moves too much and destabilizes the recovery, there's a reason for concern," he said.
Ed Al-Hussainy, senior interest rate analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, expects the Fed to focus on its newly announced Main Street Lending Program, meant to support small- and medium-sized businesses facing financial strain because of the pandemic, as opposed to introducing significant new stimulus measures.
"The Fed is likely to communicate that there is more scope for fiscal measures but that is a very uncomfortable spot to be in," he said. "We won't have a clear sense of direction of the economy until well into the fourth quarter because all the sequential data now is massively positive."
The manufacturing ISM index rose to 43.1 in May from 41.5 in April, while weekly jobless claims fell to 1.877 million from 2.126 million the week before.
"Recent economic reports in the U.S. have been uniformly weak, though not any worse than expected," said Kevin Cummins,senior U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.
Story continues
Eddy Vataru, lead portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management, said the larger risk for the Fed is that rates remain too low, making it unlikely that there will be a significant push for yield curve-control measures.
"We can now discredit the worst outcomes of the virus. The sentiment around the risks around the virus have really changed," he said, pointing to declining infection and fatality rates in coronavirus hot spots such as the New York City region.
As a result, he is moving into corporate debt and mortgage-backed securities and shying away from Treasuries, which he said have "no investment value" at their current yields.
"At the end of the day, we have a ton of stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, and the markets have reacted to it," he said.
(This story has been refiled to correct time element in paragraph 2.)
(Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
View comments
Moderna to supply 100 to 125 mln COVID-19 vaccine doses globally in first quarter2024-09-29 12:16
Tesla Ends Year With More Than 3,000 Model 3s Still in Inventory: Electrek2024-09-29 12:09
BRIEF-Guangdong No2 Hydropower Engineering's Consortium Wins Bid For Road Contract2024-09-29 11:58
Should You Be Excited About The Ensign Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ENSG) 16% Return On Equity?2024-09-29 11:51
Paycom Software, Inc. to Host Earnings Call2024-09-29 11:17
Salin Bank Beefs Up Commercial Loan Banking Division2024-09-29 11:09
What To Know Before Buying Premier Financial Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:PFBI) For Its Dividend2024-09-29 10:49
How Does Investing In Zenith Minerals Limited (ASX:ZNC) Impact The Volatility Of Your Portfolio?2024-09-29 10:24
TUI Strikes Compensation Deal With Boeing Over 737 MAX Jets2024-09-29 10:14
Blake Nordstrom, co-president of Nordstrom, dies at age 58 after fight with cancer2024-09-29 09:52
Is Sirius International Insurance (SG) A Good Stock To Buy Now?2024-09-29 12:14
Morning News Call - Canada, January 22024-09-29 11:40
SilverBow Resources, Inc. (SBOW) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript2024-09-29 11:35
Stocks that moved substantially or traded heavily Monday2024-09-29 11:11
It's not over until there is no virus anywhere in the world - WHO2024-09-29 11:06
BRIEF-Harbin Dongan Auto Engine Says It Sold 12,534 Engines In Jan, Up 19.8 Percent Y/Y2024-09-29 10:47
How Should Investors React To Colfax Corporation's (NYSE:CFX) CEO Pay?2024-09-29 10:44
Here's where Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters stands on raising taxes on the rich2024-09-29 10:16
Guardant Health Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering2024-09-29 10:13
Wolf Warriors in the West: how China's diplomats are taking to Twitter2024-09-29 10:03